PHILLY STEAK or CREAM CHEESE?
WILL DEMOCRATS STICK WITH CHEESY CLINTON OR SWITCH TO A FAVORITE BERNIE & BEEF?
|LIBERTY BELL MAY REMAIN CRACKED, BUT DEMOCRACY INTACT|
A FUTURE TO BELIEVE IN
June 22, 2016
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST POLLS CONDUCTED BY THE HUFFINGTON POST, BERNIE SANDERS REMAINS MOST FAVORABLE AND MOST ELECTABLE CANDIDATE!
This begs the question (once again) why would Democrats opt for the coronation of Hillary Clinton over a nomination of Bernie Sanders as their Presidential choice. The numbers and the electoral map as of yesterday favor Clinton to defeat Donald Trump in November, but by a much smaller number of Electoral Votes than Sanders.
With so much on the line the Democrats should remain in tune with the polls as they are changing daily leading up to the Philadelphia convention in July. What if the unthinkable should happen and Hillary Clinton falters in the ensuing months when the Trump campaign will throw every negative they can conjurer up from her past? It may prove too much to overcome.
First, here are the current electoral vote predictions at this point in the race.
In a CLINTON v TRUMP match the recent poll results are:
HILLARY CLINTON = 159 ELECTORAL VOTES
DONALD TRUMP = 41
UNDECIDED = 184
If it is a SANDERS v TRUMP match-up
BERNIE SANDERS = 231
DONALD TRUMP = 13
UNDECIDED = 99
To win the national Presidential Election it takes 270 Electoral Votes
Clinton will need an additional 111 votes from the 184 undecided, while Sanders will need a paltry 39 votes from the 99 undecided among 7 States to gain the 270 electoral votes needed to win!
If Lloyd's of London is laying odds, this would be a no-brainer and worth a trip to the UK.
Secondly, there is the other factor that the Democratic establishment and corporate media do not like to air or discuss. This is the Unfavorable Ratings for all the candidates. In the upcoming election it is almost unfathomable that both Republicans and Democrats would leave Cleveland and Philadelphia respectively, by nominating candidates with unfavorable ratings as seen by the American electorate. The latest polls indicate:
Donald Trump retains his status as the most disliked as seen at a 60.3% Unfavorable Rating
The "Favorable" rating is very low at 34.7% with an undecided at 2.2%.
Hillary Clinton comes in second with firm unfavorable rating of 54.5%
Her favorable number is 41.6% and 2.6% undecided.
Statistically speaking I am not sure how the mathematical wizards view a tight race in terms of these low favorable numbers. Trump with only 34.7% will need to make an 180 degree turn in how the electorate views him. Hypothetically, for Trump to reach the slightest majority he will need to capture the 2.2% undecided and capture or bully his way by reversing another 14.2% of those with a current negative view. With a total of 62.2% it does not seem implausible to garner the 14.2% to win with the slightest majority. With approximately 13 weeks up to the election, he would need to "reverse his unfavorable rating" by 1.1% each week. This is not a steep climb.
On the other hand, Clinton under the same scenario will need to secure the undecided of 2.6% and reverse the hardened opinion of voters who have a longstanding dislike of her from the day she came onto the political scene. Trump, as a first time politician and newcomer will find it easier to gain more ground among unfavorable based on election history.
Clinton's electability and her lead in every prior Senate election has shown only a steady decline. To reach the slightest of victories she will need to win over the hearts, minds and voters of 6.3% of her unfavorable. This will take a gain each week from Convention to Election of only .5%.
However, there is the unknowns. One is the simple truth that with so many voters who dislike both Trump and Clinton there may be many who will just sit out this election. Many Republicans who absolutely cannot stomach Trump will likely stay home. But, the same can be said of those long-time Clinton haters.
A second caveat for Hillary Clinton is how will the "Yuge" number of Sanders supporters vote? There is a good chance that many of his political revolution will decide that Clinton is the same old Democratic establishment figure and stick to convictions rather than sell out. Again, the historical voting pattern of support for Clinton is one of decline as the election date arrives. Therefore, the small percentage of 6.3% may be much tougher to garner than Trump's 14.2%.
Now, here is the scenario if Bernie Sanders is the Democratic nominee.
Bernie Sanders unlike so many candidates this year, right now has a favorable rating of 50.3% with 7% undecided. If the most improbable event occur and Democrats exert their political intellect and rightly give Bernie the go ahead, it will restore the swell of new support and new voters across the country where Independent votes will be counted!
Under this scenario, Sanders will only need to retain the majority of favorable voters as it stands at 50.3%. New small contributors will log on to the Internet and contribute millions as never seen in any prior election in American political history. A revitalized Sanders campaign emerging from Philadelphia will be "unstoppable!" The Democrats will be viewed as the Party with a "future to believe in" while the Republicans will leave Cleveland on a barge on Lake Erie.
As of today, Donald Trump is in dire straits as far as gaining new campaign contributors just as the number of disgruntled Trump University enrolled. It is a given for some time now that the Kochs and their billionaire club have already thrown in the towel on the Presidential race.
The Koch billionaires are going to place their big money pile on the undercard races including Governor contests and State Legislatures where they have had phenomenal success over the past 6 years. There is no reason for the billionaire class to abandon a winning strategy this fall. The Koch coalition will enjoy a majority in control of individual state governments with the power to negate the agenda of a Clinton White House.
However, with a Bernie Sanders run for the big prize, huge individual support among people who have never participated and a war chest swelling with $27 to possibly $47 campaign donations, the sheer energy of a real election where 'real change" is in sight, it is more than likely new and old voters will see the scam behind the Koch billionaires and flock to the polls in record numbers.
This should guarantee gains for Democrats across the board by winning a majority in the Senate and narrowing to a slight majority in the House. More importantly, many individual States that have been hoodwinked like Rick Snyder's Michigan majority in the Legislature will return to some semblance of reality where democracy will begin a comeback and defeat his oligarchy.
It may be a tall glass of water, but at least it will be CLEAN! There is a certainty here in that the Koch's are one of the countries biggest polluters and Trump water failed just as his other off-beat ventures.